‘A Critical Scenario’: War on Iran Tightens India's LPG Stock.

The ripple effects of a conflict being fought nearly a significant distance away are now reaching India's homes.

As US-Israeli strikes on Iran disrupt energy deliveries through the key maritime chokepoint, availability of cooking gas are dwindling across India, compelling restaurants to shorten food lists, reduce operating times and in some cases cease operations entirely.

Social media is filled with video clips showing lines outside fuel suppliers across Indian urban and rural areas as worries over fuel supplies grow. Businesses appear the most affected: the most severe shortage is in restaurant kitchens.

"The situation is dire. LPG simply cannot be found," says a spokesperson of the an industry group.

Most restaurants run either on business-grade gas tanks or direct gas lines, and the shortages are now being experienced across the country. "A lot of restaurants have closed - some in northern India, many in the southern states. People are adopting coal and wood and electronic appliances to keep food preparation going."

City-Specific Fallout

In Mumbai, accounts say up to a significant portion of eateries are already completely or partially closed as cylinder availability dwindle. In the southern cities of Bengaluru and Chennai, some eateries say their cylinder inventory have shrunk with little backup. "We can only make coffee and no other dishes - it is extremely difficult. Commerce will take a hit," says a business operator in Bengaluru.

Restaurant owners are rushing to adjust. "Offering lists are shrinking, some are skipping midday meals and operating solely in the evening," an industry representative says, adding that stoppages are changing as supplies come and go. "A number of eateries in Delhi were shut yesterday - two have already reopened. It's a fluid situation."

Retailers note a spike in sales of induction stoves, with some saying they are running out of them.

Official Position

Yet, the officials insists there is adequate supply.

India has more than 30 crore household consumers and spokespersons say supplies are being reallocated to households as tensions from the regional hostilities impact energy markets.

Approximately six out of ten of India's LPG is sourced from abroad, and about the vast majority of those imports pass through the Strait of Hormuz, the vital passage now largely blocked by the hostilities.

The relevant department says that it ordered refineries to increase LPG output for household consumption, enhancing domestic production by about a significant margin. Commercial stock is being prioritised for essential sectors such as healthcare and education, while distribution will be "fair and transparent".

"Unnecessary hoarding and stockpiling has been triggered by rumors. The regular refill period for home fuel remains about under three days," says a ministry representative.

Spreading Anxiety

Now the concern is moving beyond kitchens. On social media, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a long, snaking queue of motorbikes outside a fuel station. "Concern is genuine," the description reads.

According to analysis from industry analysts, concerns about India's broader petroleum stocks may be overstated.

India imports the overwhelming majority of its crude oil. Around 50% of its crude oil imports - about millions of barrels a day - travel through the passage, largely from Gulf countries.

Even if oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted, the deficit could be partly offset by higher imports of Russian petroleum, according to a refinery and oil markets analyst.

Based on maritime intelligence and industry information, increased Russian crude imports could reach around 1-1.2 million barrels a day, narrowing India's effective deficit from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about 1.6 million barrels a day.

"Around 25-30 million Russian oil barrels are currently on the water in the Indian Ocean and, with only key buyers as major buyers, those barrels remain a available backup," an analyst noted.

Kitchen Fuel: The Primary Concern

The real vulnerability is kitchen fuel, analysts say.

India consumes roughly 1 million barrels a day, but produces only less than half domestically, importing the rest - most of it through Hormuz.

Refineries can modify output to produce a bit more LPG, but even a moderate increase would only lift domestic supply to about under half of demand, leaving the country largely dependent on imports.

In short: "Crude supply risk can be partially mitigated through varied suppliers. Fuel availability remains fairly adequate. Cooking gas supply is the key factor to track in the coming weeks."

What may be intensifying the panic on the ground is not just tight supply but erratic supply chains - and the common threat of hoarding.

An industry representative claims price gouging.

"Retailers are taking advantage of the situation - illegally trading canisters and selling them at a premium. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being accumulated and auctioned off."

For now, India's petroleum stocks may be cushioned by worldwide shipping. But in restaurants across the country, the more pressing concern is simple: how to get the next refill.