Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two articles that aim for impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters report they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless official who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has has important lessons to gain from the alternative positions."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
