🔗 Share this article

In October 2022, when Rishi Sunak assumed office as British prime minister, he was the fifth British prime minister to take up the role over a six-year span.

Unleashed on the UK by Brexit, this signified exceptional governmental instability. So what term captures what is occurring in the French Republic, now on its sixth prime minister in two years – with three in the last ten months?

The current premier, the newly reinstated Sébastien Lecornu, may have gained a brief respite on that day, sacrificing Emmanuel Macron’s flagship pensions overhaul in exchange for support from Socialist lawmakers as the price for his government’s survival.

But it is, at best, a temporary fix. The EU’s number two economic power is locked in a ongoing governmental crisis, the likes of which it has not experienced for many years – possibly not since the establishment of its Fifth French Republic in 1958 – and from which there appears no simple way out.

Governing Without a Majority

Key background: ever since Macron initiated an risky early parliamentary vote in 2024, the nation has had a divided assembly split into three opposing factions – the left, the far right and his own centrist coalition – without any group holding a clear majority.

At the same time, the nation faces dual debt and deficit crises: its debt-to-GDP ratio and deficit are now almost twice the EU limit, and hard constitutional deadlines to approve a 2026 budget that starts controlling expenditures are nigh.

Against that unforgiving backdrop, both Lecornu’s immediate predecessors – Michel Barnier, who lasted from September to December 2024, and François Bayrou, who took office from December 2024 to September 2025 – were ousted by the assembly.

In September, the leader named his close ally Lecornu as his latest PM. But when, a little over two weeks ago, Lecornu presented his government team – which proved to be much the same as the old one – he encountered anger from allies and opponents alike.

So much so that the next day, he stepped down. After just 27 days in office, Lecornu became the briefest-serving prime minister in modern French history. In a dignified speech, he cited political rigidity, saying “party loyalties” and “personal ambitions” would make his job virtually unworkable.

A further unexpected development: just hours after Lecornu’s resignation, Macron asked him to stay on for two more days in a last-ditch effort to salvage cross-party backing – a mission, to put it gently, not without complications.

Next, two ex-prime ministers publicly turned on the embattled president. Meanwhile, the far-right National Rally (RN) and leftist LFI refused to meet Lecornu, vowing to reject any and every new government unless there were snap elections.

Lecornu persisted in his duties, talking to everyone who was prepared to hear him out. At the end of his 48 hours, he went on TV to say he thought “a solution remained possible” to avoid elections. The leader's team announced the president would name a fresh premier 48 hours later.

Macron honored his word – and on that Friday reappointed Sébastien Lecornu. So recently – with Macron commenting from the wings that the country’s rival political parties were “fuelling division” and “solely responsible for this chaos” – was Lecornu’s critical test. Would he endure – and is he able to approve the crucial budget?

In a critical address, the 39-year-old PM spelled out his budget priorities, giving the centre-left Socialist party (PS), who oppose Macron’s unpopular pension overhaul, what they were waiting for: Macron’s key policy would be suspended until 2027.

With the right-wing LR already supportive, the Socialists said they would refuse to support no-confidence motions proposed against Lecornu by the extremist factions – meaning the administration would likely endure those votes, due on Thursday.

It is, nevertheless, far from guaranteed to be able to pass its planned €30bn budget squeeze: the PS clearly stated that it would be demanding further compromises. “This,” said its head, Olivier Faure, “is just the start.”

Changing Political Culture

The issue is, the more Lecornu cedes to the centre-left, the more opposition he'll face from the right. And, like the PS, the right-leaning parties are themselves divided over how to handle the new government – some are still itching to topple it.

A glance at the parliamentary arithmetic shows how difficult his mission – and future viability – will be. A total of 264 deputies from the far-right RN, radical-left LFI, Greens, Communists and hardline-right UDR want him out.

To succeed, they need a 288-vote majority in parliament – so if they can convince only 24 of the PS’s 69 members or the LR’s 47 representatives (or both) to vote with them, Macron’s fifth precarious prime minister in 24 months is, like his predecessors, toast.

Most expect this to occur soon. Although, by an unlikely turn, the dysfunctional assembly summons up the collective responsibility to approve a budget this year, the prospects for the government beyond that look grim.

So is there a way out? Early elections would be doubtful to resolve the issue: surveys indicate pretty much every party bar the RN would see reduced representation, but there would remain no decisive majority. A new prime minister would face the same intractable arithmetic.

Another possibility might be for Macron himself to resign. After a presidential vote, his replacement would disband the assembly and hope to secure a parliamentary majority in the following election. But that, too, is uncertain.

Surveys show the future president will be Marine Le Pen or Jordan Bardella. There is at least an odds-on chance that French electorate, having chosen a far-right leader, might think twice about handing them control of parliament.

Ultimately, France may not emerge from its quagmire until its leaders accept the new political reality, which is that clear majorities are a thing of the past, absolute victory is obsolete, and compromise is not synonymous with failure.

Numerous observers believe that transformation will not be feasible under the existing governmental framework. “This isn't a standard political crisis, but a crise de régime” that will prove anything but temporary.

“The system wasn't built to encourage – and even disincentivizes – the emergence of governing coalitions typical across Europe. The Fifth Republic could be in its final stage.”