Why Donald Trump Achieved a Breakthrough in the Middle East Yet Struggles With Putin Over the Ukraine Conflict

Trump and Putin's planned talks on the near four-year war in Ukraine have been put on hold
Trump and Vladimir Putin's scheduled talks on the almost four-year war in Ukraine have been put on hold.

Accounts of an upcoming American-Russian leadership summit have been overstated, it seems.

Only a few days after Donald Trump said he planned to confer with Russia's leader Putin in Budapest - "in approximately a fortnight" - the high-level talks has been suspended indefinitely.

A initial meeting by the two nations' leading diplomats has been cancelled, as well.

"I don't want to have a wasted meeting," Donald Trump told the press at the executive mansion on Tuesday afternoon. "I aim to avoid a pointless effort, so I will observe what happens."
  • Trump states he wished to avoid a 'wasted meeting' after plan for negotiations with Putin shelved
  • Letdown in Ukraine's capital as Zelensky departs Washington empty-handed

The frequently changing summit is another twist in Trump's attempts to broker an end to war in Ukraine – a topic of renewed focus for the US president after he orchestrated a truce and hostage release deal in Gaza.

During a speech in Egypt last week to commemorate that truce deal, Trump addressed Steve Witkoff, with a fresh directive.

"It is essential to get Russia resolved," he declared.

However, the conditions that aligned to make a Middle East success achievable for the negotiation team may be difficult to replicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been ongoing for nearing several years.

Less Leverage

Per Witkoff, the key to achieving a agreement was the Israeli government's move to attack Hamas negotiators in the Gulf state. It was a move that angered America's Arab allies but gave the president leverage to pressure Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.

Trump benefited from a long record of siding with Israel since his first term, encompassing his decision to relocate the US embassy to Jerusalem, to alter US policy on the lawfulness of Israeli settlements in the occupied territories and, in recent times, his backing for Israeli defense operations against the Islamic Republic.

The US president, in fact, is more popular among Israelis than Netanyahu – a position that gave him special sway over the Israeli leader.

Combine Trump's political and economic ties to influential Arab nations in the region, and he had a wealth of negotiating strength to secure an deal.

Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, by contrast, the president has significantly reduced leverage. In recent months, he has vacillated between attempts to pressure the Russian president and then the Ukrainian leader, all with little seeming effect.

Trump has warned to impose new sanctions on Russia's oil and gas sales and to provide the Ukrainian forces with advanced missile systems. But he has also recognised that doing so could harm the world's financial stability and further escalate the conflict.

Meanwhile, the US leader has publicly berated Zelensky, temporarily cutting off information exchange with Ukraine and pausing weapon deliveries to the nation - then to retreat in the wake of concerned European allies who warn a defeat of Ukraine could destabilise the entire region.

Trump often boasts about his skill to sit down and negotiate agreements, but his personal discussions with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders haven't seemed to move the hostilities any nearer a peaceful end.

Trump and Putin's meeting in August yielded no concrete results
Trump and Putin's meeting in the summer yielded no concrete results.

The Russian president may actually be exploiting the US leader's wish for a settlement – and belief in direct negotiations - as a means of influencing him.

In July, Putin consented to a summit in the US state at the time when it seemed probable that Trump would sign off on congressional sanctions package backed by Senate Republicans. That bill was afterwards delayed.

Recently, as reports spread that the White House was considering seriously shipping long-range missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Kyiv, the Russian leader called the US president who then promoted the possible summit in Hungary.

The following day, the president hosted Ukraine's leader at the executive residence, but departed empty-handed after a reportedly tense meeting.

Trump insisted that he was not being played by the Russian president.

"As you are aware, I have been manipulated throughout my career by skilled operators, and I came out really well," he remarked.
Sequence of events in Ukraine diplomacy

But the Ukrainian leader later commented on the sequence of events.

"As soon as the matter of advanced weaponry became a less accessible for us – for Ukraine – Russia almost automatically became less engaged in diplomacy," he stated.

Thus, in a matter of days, the president has bounced from considering the idea of sending missiles to Ukraine to organizing a meeting in Hungary with Russia's leader and privately pressuring Zelensky to cede all of Donbas – including territory Russia has been failed to capture.

He has ultimately settled on calling for a ceasefire along present frontlines – a proposal Russia has rejected.

During his election campaign previously, Trump promised that he could end the Ukraine war in a very short time. He has subsequently abandoned that commitment, saying that concluding the war is turning out harder than he expected.

It has been a uncommon admission of the constraints of his power – and the challenge of establishing a framework for peace when both parties desires, or is able to, cease hostilities.

Melissa Knight
Melissa Knight

A seasoned esports analyst and content creator with over a decade of experience in competitive gaming and strategy development.